BidIndex places Vancouver bid behind Bern, according to Gamesbids.com
Eight cities are currently bidding for the 2010 Olympic Winter Games, although Andorra la Vella, Andorra looks like it might pull out and go for 2014 instead.
Vancouver and Whistler are already waist deep in the preliminary bid process and the organizers are confident that we will be one of the five cities short-listed in August to submit an actual bid. After jumping that hurdle, the Vancouver-Whistler 2010 Bid Corporation will have just over 14 months before the International Olympic Committee awards the 2010 Games in July, 2003.
The local media has scrutinized our own bid, but to date we dont really know what the competition will be bringing to the IOC table or how we stack up.
Enter GamesBids.com, a Web site that spun out of Torontos failed bid to host the 2008 Olympics. Using past Olympic bids as a model, they have created the BidIndex, a mathematical formula that analyzes the merits and demerits of each bid to come up with a number. By comparing the number assigned to each bid and that number is always changing as more information on each bid surfaces you can get an idea of which city is in the lead.
Is it accurate? GamesBids.com doesnt make that claim.
"It has been observed in the past that the IOC members do not vote based on the quality of the bid alone and often results are unpredictable. GamesBids.com wanted to find a way to compare Olympic Bids, and normalize the results. BidIndex takes bid quality into account, but also evaluates other important factors such as Geopolitics, IOC politics, public support and other things considered to have an effect on the IOC voters. These results will help our readers gain an understanding into the relative strengths of the bids."
Does it work? So far, the answer is yes.
The BidIndex was first used to gauge the merits of the bids for the 2008 Games, and the end results of the IOC voting was surprisingly consistent with the Index.
Beijing China had a 75.44 BidIndex and received 44 votes in round one and 56 votes in round two. Toronto had a BidIndex of 63.79 and received 20 votes in round one and 22 in round two. Paris had a BidIndex of 58.71 and received 17 votes in round one and 9 votes in round two.
By applying the formula to the 2010 bid cities, BidIndex determined that the Vancouver bid is currently running in second to Bern, Switzlerland. Vancouver has 58.13 points, while Bern has 58.27. Salzburg, Austria, is third with 52.93 points, Jaca, Spain is fourth with 46.04 and Andorra was fifth with 45.45.